News In Focus
27 April 2009
Judges predicted to ignore attempt to cut prison population
A senior civil servant has cast doubt on the Scottish Government's plan to slash the prison population by admitting that judges are likely to ignore pleas to replace short prison sentences with new community orders.
Wilma Dickson, deputy director of the criminal justice division, has revealed to the Scottish Parliament's Finance Committee that community sentences are expected to increase by only between 10 and 20% as a result of the change. Cost estimates to community justice authorities of £3.4m a year assume such a rise, which on a figure of around 6,200 community service orders imposed in 2007-08 would be lkely to reduce the current prison population by less than 100.
Justice Secretary Kenny MacAskill wants to replace short prison sentences with community orders designed to boost the rehabilitation of persistent offenders and ease prison overcrowding. The Criminal Justice and Licensing (Scotland) Bill now before the Scottish Parliament would introduce a presumption against courts imposing prison sentences of six months or less, in favour of community disposals.
The Government's plans are based on the recommendations of the McLeish Commission on sentencing, which aimed to reduce the prison population by up to 3,000.
Ms Dickson's submission anticipates that judges are unlikely to embrace the policy for several years after the change is introduced. She stated: "These are assumptions based on predictions of sentencer behaviour. I think most people agree the shift will be gradual."