GSPC sees "signs of stability" in property market
2 Apr 09
Price decline slows but selling times lengthen
by house sales, property market, GSPC
The pace at which house prices in Glasgow and west central Scotland are falling has slowed in the last three months, according to figures released today by the Glasgow Solicitors Property Centre (GSPC).
Over Strathclyde as a whole, average prices were down 8.7% over the year to March, while in Glasgow the decline was only 5.1%. These compare with falls of 15-18% for the UK as a whole reported by mortgage lenders the Halifax and Nationwide.
Overall, the average price of a home in west central Scotland is now £131,000, a fall of £12,500 compared to a year earlier. In Glasgow, the average price now stands at £142,500, down just over £7,500 over the last 12 months. Prices now are broadly back to the level last seen in the summer of 2006.
Average selling times, the period a home is advertised for sale, have lengthened again, from 97 days at the end of December 2008 to 125 days today, a level last seen in the late 1990s. GSPC believes this may be due in part to greater caution about notifying GSPC of a sale until the deal is certain to go ahead, though it also suggests that sellers are still reluctant to accept less for their homes than they had hoped.
The latter factor may also contribute to the drop in the number of homes being put up for sale, down by more than half since last year.
GSPC chairman Michael Samuel claimed that the slowing in the rate of price decline was indicative of improving market conditions. “Although transaction levels are still very low compared to earlier periods, we have seen steady growth in the number of sales since the start of this year and even a few properties selling at closing dates", he said.
"There is no doubt that steep falls in interest rates have taken the pressure off some homeowners and made buying more affordable for some. Most importantly, there are some early signs of an improvement in mortgage lending."
He added: “These results suggest that prices could reach their floor some time this year and, while no-one is suggesting that prices will recover in the short term, the lack of new properties on the market will increasingly limit choice for buyers. Anyone planning to move home in the near future might find that now is a surprisingly good time to take the plunge”.
Professor Gwilym Pryce of the Department of Urban Studies, University of Glasgow, who conducted the analysis of the GSPC data, said it was impossible to predict when the housing market would pick up again, but that those who were able to buy now could do well. “For those able to purchase when prices are low, housing will be a particularly attractive long-term investment”.